EU referendum vote (12)

With the UK Government poised to trigger Article 50 this coming week, I feel that it is time for all of us in the UK to fasten our seat belts on account of the turbulence ahead.

Several former Prime Ministers of several political parties have expressed concern at the prospect of leaving the EU.  The current Government have firmly ruled out a second EU referendum on the grounds that the electorate have spoken.

[Incidentally, I have not seen any research into the counting of the referendum votes by parliamentary constituencies, and then the counting of leave / remain MPs according to the votes exclusively in their own constituencies.]

However, I sense that a second EU referendum will take place because opinions are changing, and will continue to change, as the complexity and cost of leaving becomes more real.

And to my mind, whether the Government grants a second referendum or not, the common people of the UK will transform the next General Election into a second EU referendum.

So far as I can see, whatever the political parties contesting the next election call themselves, the next General Election will be between the ‘count me IN’ manifesto(s) and the ‘count me OUT’ manifesto(s).  [This of course assumes that there will be no military take over which suspends the supremacy of Parliament for a time during a period of martial law.]

If the OUTs win again (counting MPs this time), then the present policy is affirmed.  But if the INs win (by counting MPs), then a fresh sovereign Parliament can attempt to reverse leaving the EU – either by setting aside the ‘divorce’ proceedings (with the consent of the other EU members), or by asking to be readmitted (and that will pose a real challenge for the other EU members).

That is an outline of my picture of the severe turbulence ahead.  I am unable to imagine how life-threatening it will be to the UK.  If the UK does come through the next decade, then (sooner rather than later) an independent commission is surely needed to advise the UK on the relationship between a sovereign Parliament and a UK-wide referendum on a single issue.